NCAAF: New Mexico Bowl

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NCAAF: New Mexico Bowl
Wyoming and Fresno State kick off the 34-game bowl parade from New Mexico.

The Bulldogs have moved into the position of heavy favorites, laying 12.5-points, with a total set at 55, according to the Sportsbook.com LIVE ODDS page. Most of the betting attention seems to be focused on the total as nine of every 10 bettors expect this game to be a shootout.

The Cowboys finished 6-6 in 2009, but proved even more competitive than that, covering seven of their L9 games against the spread. They are playing in a bowl game for the first time in five years.

Fresno State was 8-4 in the regular season and comes in having won seven of its L8 games. The Bulldogs have become regular bowl participants, but have struggled horribly in the favorite role, losing their L4 both outright and ATS, including three times vs. Mountain West foes. In fact, underdogs have covered the last eight Fresno State bowl games. These teams used to meet regularly as conference foes, but haven’t gone head-to-head since 1997.

It’s really hard to make a case that Wyoming deserved a bowl bid. Five of their six wins were by a touchdown or fewer and its only win over a plus-.500 opponent was a 29-22 squeaker over Division I-AA Weber State. In their five games against bowl opponents, the Cowboys were outscored by over 25 points per game.

Pat Hill and Fresno State once again took on all comers this season, losing two games against BCS teams (Cincinnati and Boise State) and another in overtime to Big Ten bowler Wisconsin.

For those looking to bet the total, Fresno State nets 34.3 PPG and 6.4 yards per play, so it’ll certainly put up the points. If Wyoming can muster anything against a Bulldog defense that surrendered 50-plus points three times this season, this one should go over the 55.
Top StatFox ATS Trend
WYOMING is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The average score was WYOMING 11.3, OPPONENT 35.6 - (Rating = 1*)
Top StatFox Total Super Situation
Play Under - Any team against the total (FRESNO ST) - in a bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-A conferences. (34-8 over the last 10 seasons) (81%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*)

NEW MEXICO BOWL Series Trend: In this battle of Mountain West and WAC teams, the Mountain West team has won two straight games both SU & ATS. The UNDER and underdog are also 2-1. Wyoming would figure to have the edge based upon the aforementioned figures. However, the spreads for the three games have been -1.5, -2, and -2.5, so in each case the games were expected to be competitive. This one is double-digits.
NCAAF: St. Petersburg Bowl
The second annual St. Petersburg Bowl is a battle of Knights, UCF’s Knights vs. the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.

Rutgers, out of the Big East, is a 2.5-point favorite for this second of 34-bowl games, according to Sportsbook.com. UCF comes out of Conference USA, and most bettors, 86% of them, think the conference strength difference will be what decides this game.

The Golden Knights of UCF were one of the country’s most effective teams against the pointspread this season, going 9-2. They’ll come into this game having rather quietly won five of their L6 games outright as well. Still, they are a slight underdog to a Rutgers team that finished 8-4 in 2009 out of the Big East.

The bowl histories of these teams are very different, as UCF is seeking its first ever bowl-game win, and is playing in just its third postseason contest. The Scarlet Knights have won three straight bowl games, all as favorites. They boast a 24-12 ATS record in non-conference games under head coach Greg Schiano.

These two teams will be facing off in sunny Florida, yet playing indoors gives no real home-field advantage to UCF. In my opinion the teams come in with pretty much the same seasons behind them as far as stats go.

The deciding factor in this game will be conference strength and a price that doesn’t reflect it. Rutgers has forced a ton of turnovers this year so look for the Scarlet Knight to do so once again here.

The StatFox Power Rating line indicates Rutgers should be a seven-point favorite. Take advantage of that and watch the chalk jump to an early lead and win by nine or more.
Top StatFox ATS Trend
George O'Leary is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) against teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers/game on the season in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was O'Leary 25.5, OPPONENT 32.1 - (Rating = 2*)
Top StatFox Total Super Situation
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (UCF) - in a game involving two average passing teams (6.4-7.5 PYA), in non-conference games. (40-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.9%, +26.8 units. Rating = 3*)

ST PETERSBURG BOWL Series Trend: Last year’s St. Petersburg Bowl game was the first college bowl game hosted at “The Trop”, better known as the home of baseball’s Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa-based South Florida was an unofficial “host” for that game, and didn’t show Memphis much hospitality, routing the Tigers 41-14 as a 10.5-point favorite. UCF would have a “regional” advantage, but Rutgers is still the favorite.

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